There are a lot of “what if’s” in New York right now
“No matter how much talent the New York Jets possess, which coaches are guiding them, what prognostications emanate from their camp — habitually different than what anyone else thinks, of course — all we need are two good eyes and a spec of common sense to see where Rex Ryan’s crew is heading this season. Which is to say … nowhere at all.” – Stephen A. Smith; ESPN
First of all, YES, I am a Jets fan. Second of all, NO, I won’t tell you Shark Manchez (all praise to his name) is a sleeper fantasy stud and should be started over Tom Brady. I cannot deny that fantasy-wise the Jets present an untouchable scenario for conservative fantasy managers. Even besides the “quarterback” controversies; we are presented with an offense so conflicted that a defensive back seriously believes he is a top receiver on the team, despite consistently failing to cover receivers from the rest of the league. I am a firm believer that we, as fantasy managers, should look at every bad situation on the field as an opportunity. And so I have put to words my feelings on the possible fantasy benefits to be gleaned from the Jets’ offense. They are presented with the spirit of defeatism and self-loathing that has dogged me my entire life as a fan, and so I am open to some rough criticism in the comments section.
“Hey, if I’m Mark Sanchez, ‘I’m the starting quarterback and it’s great to have Tim here to help us win football games.’ That’s the statement. It’s time for somebody to stand up (and) believe in themselves if you’re a Jet.” – Joe Theismann
If Tim Tebow’s God is just, and/or the universe has a plan, Mark Sanchez will be the starting quarterback for the Jets for the entire season. This is the first of two times that I will mention Tebowmania. I believe that Rex Ryan and the New York Football Jets will not be driven to abandon Mark Sanchez due to the frenzied blathering of Tim Tebow’s cult following. The whole “quarterback” controversy, as I see it, is missing the point. The person who will actually lose his job to Tebow is Shonn Greene…
Everyone who watched the Jets last year can agree that there was an offense on the field. No one thinks it was good, or knows what it was doing, rather we accepted that it was there, and moved on. The team was somehow not awful, yet the individual stats that make fantasy managers drool were nonexistent. Points were somehow being put on the board but not with regularity. It would be easy to blame Sanchez, but the mediocre numbers the Jets were able to put up don’t support that. He was ranked the no. 10 overall QB in terms of fantasy points. His 18 interceptions, much espoused by fans as a reason for him to be replaced, is on par with other “scrubs” as Eli Manning, or Cam Newton (Hint: not scrubs) and well behind the 23 interceptions of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is regarded by many a fantasy golden boy going into the 2012 season. Remarkably he threw the 9th highest amount of touchdowns and also had a respectable 3,500 yds despite some well documented upheaval within the Jets receiving core.
I believe the true problem was with Sanchez’s role as the goal-line back and everything that such a situation implied about the Jets offensive culture. Mark Sanchez was tied with Tim Tebow for the second most rushing TD’s among NFL quarterbacks; it was also tied with the measly 6 rushing TD’s that Shonn Greene was able to amass, despite being hailed for a breakout season by many, and being esteemingly called a “bell cow” by Rex Ryan.
So the Jets should find a new RB right? Nope, they still have Shonn Greene. Which leaves them to address the other half of their ground attack, the QB sneak. Enter Tim Tebow, the only “QB” in the modern NFL to achieve consecutive seasons with 6+ rushing TD’s. Despite the fact there is a more than decent chance that Newton achieves this feat in his upcoming sophomore season, it is nothing to scoff at. Notable rushers as Kordell Stewart, Daunte Culpepper, and Michael Vick have come and gone over the years without reaching it.
This is the second time I will mention Tebowmania.
It is easy to see how Tebow may be inheriting the mother lode of red zone rushing attempts. Just as a reminder… Tim Tebow will play, and he will see snaps. There is no denying this and there is nothing anyone can do to change that. He has a cookie cutter role as the Jets primary guy to carry the football over that elusive goal line (it’s him or Sanchez). Shonn Green will still be the grunt in the trenches; racking up more bruises than yards on the season while taking the majority of snaps. But Mark Sanchez will never be allowed to rush for 6 touchdowns again and Shonn has proven to be a clumsy virgin on prom night when it comes to goal line work.
Put plainly, the Jets attempt at a running game was some of the worst television I have ever allowed myself to endure. Shonn Greene lacks explosiveness to such a degree that the QB sneak seemed to be preferred within the Jets system. Mark Sanchez was one of the top fantasy QBs in the league because he was their best goal-line option. Guess who the Jets picked up and is probably really good at “QB sneaking.”
…Anything relevant to fantasy football?
Shonn Greene – This man is not worth the digital ink I just used to tell you that he is worthless. He will get many attempts to run the ball in Jets territory and he will be the nose that receives the punch but (hopefully) never breaks. He will not be scoring touchdowns. His main value is as a trade commodity to people who are blinded by his job description, and his stock will never be higher than it is now before he touches the ball.
TRADE HIM FOR:
- A better defense
- A promising WR prospect (See: Greg Little, Titus Young, etc.)
- Promising Handcuff (Felix Jones, Ronnie Brown, etc.)
- Uhh… listen bro he’s a starting running back in the NFL.
- The Jets “Ground and Pound”
- I need to get the Yahoo trade achievement.
Overview: Try and offload him before people realize that whatever value he had that made you pick him in the 9th round is gone. He is still a starting RB I guess.
Mark Sanchez – The man may have a use in fantasy football, but his future is far from clear. Believe it or not, he was the 10th best QB in the league last year, right behind Tony Romo, but ahead of such notables as Fitzpatrick, Vick, Flacco, Roethlisberger, and many more. Despite this, much of his value derives from:
- The fact he had 6 rushing TD’s last year, which is almost certain to not happen again.
- (If) he can have some time in the pocket
- He has someone open to throw to. Besides a questionably disillusioned Santonio Holmes, and Dustin Keller, the rest of his options are quite lackluster.
- Tim Tebow will be a better “RB” than Shonn Greene, but it remains to be seen if he will be deployed in the same offensive sets along with, or instead of Sanchez.
Overview: Tebow might give Sanchez the running support a successful QB needs in “the League.” I would casually keep tabs on him over the season, his talent deserves better results than he’s gotten in NY and his results have not been bad. Just remember that talent never won your friends hard earned money. He could end up being something without his absurd run at “scrambling” “quarterback” but who knows. Keep in mind that his only legitimate targets will be Dustin Keller and a semi-loyal Santonio Holmes. Do not touch with a ten foot pole until he proves something, but do not be surprised if he is a top 15 QB without 6 rushing touchdowns.
Santonio Holmes – If you’ve got him…
Overview: Santonio should not be negatively affected by anything that I’ve mentioned above. He will be the numero uno football catcher for the Jets no matter what kind of demoralizing garbage he may have been spewing in last year’s huddle. The upside is that Sanchez will keep throwing it to him. Just remember that if Tebow were to take over he should be treated like ballast thrown off a hot air balloon. If Tebow is the starting QB all Jets WRs will become more worthless than most everyone thought they were originally.
Tim Tebow – heres a guy who understands that scoring touchdowns wins football games…
Overview: So he’s a fullback wearing a quarterback’s number. This is difficult. I am not a Tebow guy. Just remember that his role would include but not be restricted to rushing touchdowns. In fact his greatest asset may be that, even with the promise of red-zone work, we still do not know what his full time position would include. If the Jets embrace his role as a FB/RB/TDguy, as I expect they will, he might be a major fantasy sleeper that nobody is seriously considering right now.
Similarly, 6 rushing TD’s is more than guys like Ryan Matthews, Steven Jackson, Fred Jackson, Chris Johnson, or Willis McGahee got last year.
Have you been incepted yet?
If you have room on your bench, pick him up now and hope for the best. If he doesn’t pan out drop his ass and deny you ever had him, we should know within the first two weeks what the Jets offense will look like.
He will never match Aaron Rodgers, but if your starting QB plays for the Buffalo Bills you might want to check this guy out.
I like him as a benchwarmer for the first couple of weeks; a possible spot start in case of injury; or a bye week desperation play. My bench has five spots and I think Tebow might have a seat on it, as my starting QB is none other than Michael “I will get injured” Vick.
Keep in mind that if Tebow and the Jets ultra-hyped “secret” offense manages to break out week 1, that hungry owners will be scrambling to pick him up, hoping for the next Cam Newton.
- Benchwarmer – If everything I said above turns out to be true he will have decent fantasy performances with some huge three TD games thrown in. Maybe that big game happens right off the bat and you get to cash in on some tebowmania (ok 3rd time…). Get yourself something nice like a good QB or…
- If that fails I’m still buying him as an injury start. I got Vick. That means I need someone to pick up the torch when the inevitable happens. Tebow is not on the same level as most starting QBs, but he could end up being a TD monster. If I’m wrong, guess what, I’m picking up a lame middling QB instead. In other words I think he may be worth holding “just in case…”
- If Tebow is a FA and Vick has his bye week I am going to try and snag him. I highly doubt that Tebow will be both available and desirable at the bye week but there it is…
Ultimately I say this. I could be wrong. The Jets can try to use Tebow out of the shotgun… but if they use him right and exploit his potential to the fullest he could end up rivaling some top running backs TD production without much danger of serious injury (remember Shonn). If your bench has room, like mine after I drop LeShoure’s goofy ass, he is worth holding for a bit before his results come in and he actually becomes noticed by people who dismissed the Jets offense.