Draft Day Sleepers
Jacob Tamme: The so called year of the tight-end has owners scrambling to find the next Gronk or Jimmy Graham. When all the name brands are long gone, look for Tamme. He fell off the radar of many after being limited to deputizing Dallas Clark last year. However, in 2010 when Clark was injured, Tamme posted 67 catches, 631 yards, and 4 TD’s. Now he is the #1 in Denver and reunited with Peyton Manning. He could very well post elite numbers this year, but if not, should still represent a good pick for value where you can get him. If you aren’t buying into the tight-end madness, fill out your other positions early on and look for Tamme in the middle rounds.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: This guy has breakout written all over him. Consider the following. Since earning his spot with the Patriots, BenJarvus Green-Ellis has never had more than 250 carries in a season. He has NEVER fumbled. He has a YPC in the red zone rivaled only by running backs going in round 1. He has 24 TD’s in the past 2 seasons. (13 & 11), despite the lack of carries. Under Marvin Lewis, Bengals RB’s have averaged 1000+ yards and 8 TD’s (since 2003). The only thing stopping him is the seeming uncertaintly to proclaim him the #1, with Bernard Scott hanging around. Make no mistake, he was not brought in to be a #2. Only seriously complications should prevent him from nabbing the role, and 20+ carries a game on top of it. By the way, chances are you can get him somewhere in rounds 5-7.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: After the season ended, Chan Gailey told us that the ‘arvard man had played through over half the season will several cracked ribs. This debunked many myths behind his (and the Bills’) nosedive after a more than impressive start. Before the injury, Fitzpatrick was working with a near 70% completion rate, 260ish yard, and 2TD per game average.
Draft Day Busts
Cam Newton: I am not buying into the Cam Newton hype and here is why. Over the final 8 games of the season, Cam’s numbers dropped exponentially, including dipping by close to 100 yards per game in the air. Clearly a sign defenses are becoming for accustomed to their “option” style offense. Now before you start screaming about the ground component of his game, lets talk about the rushing TD’s. Sure they were unprecedented and fantastic, and many owners, including myself, rode them to their league’s championship. However, only one quarterback in the modern NFL has ever posted 6+ rushing TD’s two seasons in a row, and he is currently backing up Mark Sanchez. History is not on his side, especially when you think about similar highly touted rushing QB’s who have fallen off over the years (Kordell Stewart, Daunte Culpepper, Michael Vick, Tavaris Jackson, Vince Young, etc). Now add in the fact that Carolina went out and picked up a goal line machine in Mike Tolbert, to add onto an already crowded backfield of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Lastly, there is the injury risk. While Cam is certainly not a player you would label as “injury prone” from his track record, the fact that he is a rushing quarterback makes him injury prone in itself. Considering all the looming negative factors, I forsee Cam going way too early for where I would be willing to take him.
Michael Turner: Turner was putting up absolutely abysmal numbers in the final few weeks of last season. Since week 10, he only scored above 10 fantasy points twice, and was averaging a lowly 56 yards per game if you exclude his monster game against the last place, last ranked, and injured Tampa defense in week 17.
Andre Johnson: Andre Johnson is a phenomenal receiver. He just can’t stay healthy. Andre has plagued his owners by missing almost 50% of the previous two seasons. He has never caught 10+ TD’s in a single season, largely because he is better downfield than in the redzone, and the Texans have little other depth at WR… meaning he will draw alot of attention from opposing defenses. Don’t get me wrong, he is still worthy of a high draft pick, just not as the #2 overall receiver like alot of people seem to think he is.
Anyone on the New York Jets: Where do we even start here? The 2012 Jets are a nightmare from a fantasy perspective. They are more or less using a platoon system at Quarterback with two guys who had a combined completion percentage that just barely broke 100. Why draft a player who might only get on the field every other time you are in the red zone? Shonn Greene could do decently well, but you know that Tebow will poach some of his goal line scores. Dustin Keller is the only player that’s stats likely won’t take a hit from this shake up. A Rex Ryan defense will obviously be tough, but the once impenetrable Jets D has aged, and there seem to be better picks for value on that front. Ones that don’t play the Patriots twice, also.